A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
