Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
